Stay away from Singapore Stock market now

Last night USA DJI closed at 15419 around 239 off 52 week high 15658 or 1.5% below peak. 1 year ago DJI was 13169. It increased 17% this year.

Nikkei 225 index is trading at 13867 now. On 1 Jan, it was 8885. This year Nikkei go up by 56%.

Strategy : Stay away from Stock market now. Waiting for price to come down. Up side is restricted but down side could be painful

Nikkei is too high. Any adjustment will trigger sell off for profit taking. Biggest Risk is Japanese Government may delay increase in GST. Or economy may grow slow after GST increase. If it was happened, market would respond and drove STI down together.

The best scenario would be Japanese increase their GST without slow down economy grow. But this is a remote possibility.

QE is very expensive tools "to buy time"  . The longer QE policy was running more painful to withdraw. Japanese's problem is their population ageing which can not be resolved by QE policy. People are getting older everyday. Japan started their QE in 2000. It did not help. Now they want stronger QE. I see no different.

From my point of view, Japanese are paying for very high price for short period of prosperity. Bigger QE require Bigger borrowing. Not too soon they could be running out of fund. Bond interest rate could rocket and Japanese had to rise tax and cut spending. And Japan would be forced into a deeper recession.