Tuesday 20 August 2013

Federal Reserve may not start tapering QE in Sept

I post warning  on Aug 2 (STI @3254) and Aug 13 (STI @ 3244).I hope you share my concern.

Markets are going down as more concern on Federal Reserve may taper QE in this month. But I think the possibility is low. Today 10 year Goverment bond yield 2.9%. If it happen, bond yield may go beyond 5%. Both USA government and Economy could not afford this. Therefore Feberal Reserve would continue to buy bond till it's yield stabilised at 2%. But this will allow foreign banks and central banks to off load their USA bond back to Federal Reserve's account. And further inflate Federal Reserve's asset holding.

Strategy : HOLD. Price are too high to buy. QE's effect are temporary. Once QE is tapering. Markets will not look good.

BTW, I like Cambridge Industrial REIT. It is trading at $0.65 (NAV price). I downgrade my forecast target price from $0.63 to $0.60.  Industrial properties are too expensive. After many round of cooling measure, properties price will stabilise. i.e. REIT's future earning will be affected. And I shall deserve more discount.




STI looks OK. But not for HSI and DJI. Unless STI could perform outstand both HSI and DJI. Otherwise, this is not right time to buy








DJI at the beginning of an correction. If QE will continue, the adjustment shall be restricted.

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