China's Banks and Properties developers mentioned in previous post are doing well.
Singapore stock are relatively expensive. Properties market correction is overdue. My focus in fixed income investment e.g. Genting Bond and OCBC preference share. Their interest rate are around 4 to 5%. Some REITs may pay better . However properties market are going down. REITs NAV may drop e.g. Cambridge Industrial Trust . Fixed income's 4 to 5% could be the best option available.
We shall have Merry Christmas. May be Happy New Year eve ? For 2015, I have no idea !
BTW, whatever mention in my blog is my opinion but not recommendation for investment. All investment are risky.
5 Dec 2014
keywords
2015 forcast, Genting Bond, OCBC prefer share, Cambridge Industrial Trust
Thursday 4 December 2014
Monday 20 October 2014
Correction on its way
On 13 Sept and 28 Aug, my blog highlight risk of correction. And stock market fall. The correction shall last longer. It is too early for bottom fishing.
When correction is over. Both SG and HK commerical REITs are attractive. I like Fortune Reit, Frasers Commerical, Frasers centrepoint trust and CapitalMall. All of them have low PE ( 5 to 10) and reasonable yield around 6%.
Industrial REITs face both JTC's new law to increase major tenants ratio and market over supply. Their rental yield and performance would be restricted in 2014 to 2015.
Shopping Mall REITs offer stable dividend return. Potential increase in rental and dividend yield.
For investors with strong heart, China properties Developers share price are cheap. China's urbanization will continue. And almost all Chinese want to buy their house. China properties market will recover. It is just a matter of time.
China's big 4 banks stock price are also very attractive. Low PE , good dividend yield and high book value. They are all time my favour.
keywords : Correction, Frasers, REIT, properties, China Bank
When correction is over. Both SG and HK commerical REITs are attractive. I like Fortune Reit, Frasers Commerical, Frasers centrepoint trust and CapitalMall. All of them have low PE ( 5 to 10) and reasonable yield around 6%.
Industrial REITs face both JTC's new law to increase major tenants ratio and market over supply. Their rental yield and performance would be restricted in 2014 to 2015.
Shopping Mall REITs offer stable dividend return. Potential increase in rental and dividend yield.
For investors with strong heart, China properties Developers share price are cheap. China's urbanization will continue. And almost all Chinese want to buy their house. China properties market will recover. It is just a matter of time.
China's big 4 banks stock price are also very attractive. Low PE , good dividend yield and high book value. They are all time my favour.
keywords : Correction, Frasers, REIT, properties, China Bank
Saturday 13 September 2014
What will happen after Alibaba IPO ?
My previous post on 28 August
I expected my concern. In the past days, markets begin to realize situation. Correction could be continued. It is too early to buy now. More important Alibaba may be listed in 19 Sept. Market could drive down further afterward.
I am taking defensive position by holding bond and cash.
Monday 8 September 2014
Right Issue - OCBC
OCBC share price is strong during right issue. They are well supported by share holders. And it does not fall into my target price.
I will wait
I will wait
Tuesday 2 September 2014
Buy OCBC target $9.3 before 9 Sept 2014
In my opinion. OCBC may drop below S$9.3 before 9 Sept 2014. I should consider to buy in.
Please allow me to share with you my reason next week
Please allow me to share with you my reason next week
Thursday 28 August 2014
Markets were disconnected from reality. What will happen next to Singapore and Asia market ?
My last blog was "Darkness before Drawn" on 20 March 2014. In which I mentioned "Brave ourselves invest stock with good fundamental and wait for reports to be announced next week. It could be drawn". My prediction once again correct. My portfolio was doing well especially "Bank of China". And so does my Singapore REIT investment. But managing my portfolio keep me away from writing my blog.
Our world have no or little improvement.
Ukraine, Iraq and Israel are at war. Both Europe and Japan are unperformed. QE3 will be ended in Oct 2014. Most countries grow slowly or no grow. China properties market is slow. And the HK democratic election dispute. But Markets ignore almost all bad news. They were disconnected from reality.
I sold 90% of my portfolio. I keep ready cash for potential opportunity. May be I shall wait until grant Stock "Alibaba" completed their USA IPO.
Our world have no or little improvement.
Ukraine, Iraq and Israel are at war. Both Europe and Japan are unperformed. QE3 will be ended in Oct 2014. Most countries grow slowly or no grow. China properties market is slow. And the HK democratic election dispute. But Markets ignore almost all bad news. They were disconnected from reality.
I sold 90% of my portfolio. I keep ready cash for potential opportunity. May be I shall wait until grant Stock "Alibaba" completed their USA IPO.
Thursday 20 March 2014
Darkness before drawn
20 March 2014
Last night Federal chair woman Yellen Announced that Fed. will continue Q E tapering And interest rate could increase 6 mouths after QE end i.e. April 2015. If it will be earlier than market would expected. Today HSI drop almost 400 points.
Next week China banks will report. they have good 3Qs result. If no other surprise, their Annual reports shall be good too. Hopefully, market sentiment may be Improved.
Market in very dark moment. Brave ourselves invest stock with good fundamental and wait for reports to be announced next week. It could be drawn.
Friday 14 March 2014
Olam warrant and investment strategary
In my previous post on 24 Feb
My strategy is to secure my capital. I started to sell Olam stock and warrant when it was over bought. But I stopped selling when I found it was unusually outperform. Next week I will sold the rest and close this sweet chapter.
On 9 Feb, I predicted a difficult 2014. On 24 Feb, I suggest that there could be a small window of opportunity after Mid March reporting season. Hopefully market will recover between April to Mid May 2014.
I am buying in China Banks e.g. BOC, ICBC. Recent market drop offer me good buy in opportunity.
BTW, buying in falling market require courage. Your stocks' market value may fall everyday. Many people may tell you to stop until market is stable. But you have to be brave and continue to buy. I bought Olam warrant when no one was buying. I was the only one in the buying queue. I could ask whatever price and sellers will dump it to you.
I hope that my China Banks investment could repeat my success.
Stock Market may recover during report season
, which mentioned that I keep some Olam warrant even it was doing well with unknown reason. And news finally announced yesterday.It went up to my predicted warrent price of S$0.6. But it is 3 years earlier than my expectation.My strategy is to secure my capital. I started to sell Olam stock and warrant when it was over bought. But I stopped selling when I found it was unusually outperform. Next week I will sold the rest and close this sweet chapter.
On 9 Feb, I predicted a difficult 2014. On 24 Feb, I suggest that there could be a small window of opportunity after Mid March reporting season. Hopefully market will recover between April to Mid May 2014.
I am buying in China Banks e.g. BOC, ICBC. Recent market drop offer me good buy in opportunity.
BTW, buying in falling market require courage. Your stocks' market value may fall everyday. Many people may tell you to stop until market is stable. But you have to be brave and continue to buy. I bought Olam warrant when no one was buying. I was the only one in the buying queue. I could ask whatever price and sellers will dump it to you.
I hope that my China Banks investment could repeat my success.
Friday 28 February 2014
Why USA Federal Reserve insist of tapering ?
Federal Reserve could be the most power organization on earth. And their news always appear in the front page. Federal Reserve insist to tapering QE despite poor data .
Federal Reserve on 2014-02-2014 is holding 2,278,256 Millions of Dollars US Treasure bond. And they are the biggest creditor to US government. And the number will continue to rise until end of QE. Another US$297,500 millions will be added. By end of Aug 2014, Federal Reserve could be holding US$2,575,756 Millions.
China ,the 2nd biggest creditor, which are holding around $1,300,000 millions of dollars. Their holding is far behind Federal Reserve. In recent news, China Government are reducing their holding.
If QE never end, Federal Reserve would continue to buy bond. Other investors would suffer from falling exchange rate and very low return. It will discourage investors to invest in US treasury. Foreign fund would withdraw from bond market, USD exchange rate could collapse. Therefore Feberal Reserve have to end QE before it is too late.
With QE tapering, US exchange rate will rise. Foreign investors could be benefit in buying bond.
Data source http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TREAST
Monday 24 February 2014
Stock Market may recover during report season
Today STI at 3110 in the morning. It open high and go lower.
I am expecting market may stay at present level. But go up in report season i.e. mid March. We have around 3 weeks from today. I hope to see good news from most big companies. I am expect the uptrend could last till end of April.
I buy and hold stock for 3 to 12 months. The uptrend could be very short. Therefore, I may not be interested to buy now unless with good stock value.
Olam outperform. And I sell my Olam stock yesterday to lock my profit. But I am still holding a lot of Olam warrant. If Olam go up further, I will continue enjoy benefit. It is hard to determine the reason behind Olam out performance. It could be covering short selling.
I like Olam warrant. They are almost 4 years before expiry. If Stock price rised another 20% within that period, share price could reach $2. Absolute minimum Warrant price should be $2-$1.63 = $0.37. It should trading at S$0.5 to S$0.6.
I am expecting market may stay at present level. But go up in report season i.e. mid March. We have around 3 weeks from today. I hope to see good news from most big companies. I am expect the uptrend could last till end of April.
I buy and hold stock for 3 to 12 months. The uptrend could be very short. Therefore, I may not be interested to buy now unless with good stock value.
Olam outperform. And I sell my Olam stock yesterday to lock my profit. But I am still holding a lot of Olam warrant. If Olam go up further, I will continue enjoy benefit. It is hard to determine the reason behind Olam out performance. It could be covering short selling.
I like Olam warrant. They are almost 4 years before expiry. If Stock price rised another 20% within that period, share price could reach $2. Absolute minimum Warrant price should be $2-$1.63 = $0.37. It should trading at S$0.5 to S$0.6.
Sunday 9 February 2014
2014 economic outlook
Global event - USA recovering,
Europe crisis under control
Federal Reserve QE tapering
Regional event - Japanese VAT increase in April
Chinese are tightening their shadow banking and excessive liquidity
Regional asset bubble.
USA debate on debt ceiling again. Market are too tried to react on it. However, Japanese increase their VAT could be the most important event in 2014 H1. Japanese government plan to increase their borrowing by issuing more bond. However, their income is barely enough to pay for bond interest. Increase VAT may provide needy cash for interest payment and reduce public debt in long run
In August 2014, QE will be totally stopped. Asia and emerging market excessive liquidity will dry up. And investors were expecting interest rate will go up in 2015.
Investment climate will always under low pressure in 2014. However, 2014 could be best time to buy for longer term investors.
Europe crisis under control
Federal Reserve QE tapering
Regional event - Japanese VAT increase in April
Chinese are tightening their shadow banking and excessive liquidity
Regional asset bubble.
USA debate on debt ceiling again. Market are too tried to react on it. However, Japanese increase their VAT could be the most important event in 2014 H1. Japanese government plan to increase their borrowing by issuing more bond. However, their income is barely enough to pay for bond interest. Increase VAT may provide needy cash for interest payment and reduce public debt in long run
However,Japan’s VAT rate increase in 1997:Q2 from 3 percent to 5 percent is often cited as the main reason Japan fell back into recession in late 1997.
VAT increase also have impact on Japanese GDP (estimate -1% GDP). Japanese grow will be slowed down. And further impact on investors.
Investment climate will always under low pressure in 2014. However, 2014 could be best time to buy for longer term investors.
Friday 7 February 2014
Too early to pull out from Asia market
Happy Lunar New Year
My Q4 2013 was very busy but very profitable. I sold all my bank of China Share in Dec 2013. I increased my cash position before new year.
Markets went down since end of Jan 2014. The main reason was USA Federal Reserve were Tapering their bond purchasing program. Investor expect emerging markets' (EM)currency will devalue. And USA bond market will offer better return. Emerging Markets' both currency and stock marketing dropped.
Federal reserve's tapering is very successful. USA 2yr bond rate is 0.32% today. Although Federal Reserve buy lesser bond, investors are withdrawing fund from Emerging Markets and USA stock markets to buy bond. In fact withdrawal from stock markets buy down bond interest rate.
Most important, Federal Reserve keep interest rate low before 2015. They will buy more bond to stop interest rate from going up.Inventors will soon find out stock market especially emerging market offer better return. Stock markets will drive up by fund reversing back from bond market.
Strategy
Dow Jones index 14500 shall be very good support.
i.e STI 2,800
HSI 20,000
When stock market go down and getting closer to support level. I could start to buy stocks with good fundamental and dividend pay out e.g. Bank of China, Cambridge Reit and Sabana Reit.
My Q4 2013 was very busy but very profitable. I sold all my bank of China Share in Dec 2013. I increased my cash position before new year.
Markets went down since end of Jan 2014. The main reason was USA Federal Reserve were Tapering their bond purchasing program. Investor expect emerging markets' (EM)currency will devalue. And USA bond market will offer better return. Emerging Markets' both currency and stock marketing dropped.
Federal reserve's tapering is very successful. USA 2yr bond rate is 0.32% today. Although Federal Reserve buy lesser bond, investors are withdrawing fund from Emerging Markets and USA stock markets to buy bond. In fact withdrawal from stock markets buy down bond interest rate.
Most important, Federal Reserve keep interest rate low before 2015. They will buy more bond to stop interest rate from going up.Inventors will soon find out stock market especially emerging market offer better return. Stock markets will drive up by fund reversing back from bond market.
Strategy
Dow Jones index 14500 shall be very good support.
i.e STI 2,800
HSI 20,000
When stock market go down and getting closer to support level. I could start to buy stocks with good fundamental and dividend pay out e.g. Bank of China, Cambridge Reit and Sabana Reit.
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