What will happen after Alibaba IPO ?

My previous post on 28 August

Markets were disconnected from reality. What will happen next to Singapore and Asia market ?

I expected my concern. In the past days, markets begin to realize situation. Correction could be continued. It is too early to buy now. More important Alibaba may be listed in 19 Sept. Market could drive down further afterward. 

I am taking defensive position by holding bond and cash.    

Right Issue - OCBC

OCBC share price is strong during right issue. They are well supported by share holders. And it does not fall into my target price.

I will wait

Buy OCBC target $9.3 before 9 Sept 2014

In my opinion. OCBC may drop below S$9.3 before 9 Sept 2014.  I should consider to buy in.

Please allow me to share with you my reason next week

Markets were disconnected from reality. What will happen next to Singapore and Asia market ?

My last blog was "Darkness before Drawn" on 20 March 2014. In which I mentioned "Brave ourselves invest stock with good fundamental and wait for reports to be announced next week. It could be drawn". My prediction once again correct. My portfolio was doing well especially "Bank of China". And so does my Singapore REIT investment. But managing my portfolio keep me away from writing my blog.

Our world have no or little improvement.

Ukraine, Iraq and Israel are at war. Both Europe and Japan are unperformed. QE3 will be ended in Oct 2014. Most countries grow slowly or no grow. China properties market is slow. And the HK democratic election dispute. But Markets ignore almost all bad news. They were disconnected from reality.


I sold 90% of my portfolio. I keep ready cash for potential opportunity. May be I shall wait until grant Stock "Alibaba" completed their USA IPO.

Darkness before drawn

20 March 2014

Last night Federal chair woman Yellen Announced that Fed. will continue Q E tapering And interest rate could increase 6 mouths after QE end i.e. April 2015. If it will be earlier than market would expected. Today HSI drop almost 400 points.

Next week China banks will report. they have good 3Qs result. If no other surprise, their Annual reports shall be good too. Hopefully, market sentiment may be Improved.

Market in very dark moment. Brave ourselves invest stock with good fundamental and wait for reports to be announced next week. It could be drawn.

Olam warrant and investment strategary

In my previous post on 24 Feb

Stock Market may recover during report season

, which mentioned that I keep some Olam warrant even it was doing well with unknown reason. And news finally announced yesterday.It went up to my predicted warrent price of S$0.6. But it is 3 years earlier than my expectation.

My strategy is to secure my capital. I started to sell Olam stock and warrant when it was over bought. But I stopped selling when I found it was unusually outperform.  Next week I will sold the rest  and close this sweet chapter.

 On 9 Feb, I predicted a difficult 2014. On 24 Feb, I suggest that there could be a small window of opportunity after Mid March reporting season. Hopefully market will recover between April to Mid May 2014.

I am buying in China Banks e.g. BOC, ICBC. Recent market drop offer me good buy in opportunity.

BTW, buying in falling market require courage. Your stocks' market value may fall everyday. Many people may tell you to stop until market is stable. But you have to be brave and continue to buy. I bought Olam warrant when no one was buying. I was the only one in the buying queue. I could ask whatever price and sellers will dump it to you.

I hope that my China Banks investment could repeat my success.







 

Why USA Federal Reserve insist of tapering ?

Federal Reserve could be the most power organization on earth. And their news always appear in the front page. Federal Reserve insist to tapering QE despite poor data .




Federal Reserve on 2014-02-2014 is holding 2,278,256 Millions of Dollars US Treasure bond. And they are the biggest creditor to US government. And the number will continue to rise until end of QE. Another US$297,500 millions will be added. By end of Aug 2014, Federal Reserve could be holding US$2,575,756 Millions.


China ,the 2nd biggest creditor, which are holding around $1,300,000 millions of dollars. Their holding is far behind Federal Reserve.  In recent news, China Government are reducing their holding.

If QE never end, Federal Reserve would continue to buy bond. Other investors would suffer from falling exchange rate and very low return. It will discourage investors to invest in US treasury. Foreign fund would withdraw from bond market, USD exchange rate could collapse. Therefore Feberal Reserve have to end QE before it is too late.

With QE tapering, US exchange rate will rise. Foreign investors could be benefit in buying bond.

Data source http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TREAST