Wednesday 29 May 2013

Why Singapore REIT drop so badly ?

Today Singapore industrial REIT drop around 7% e.g. Cambridge industrial REIT.
Fortune Reit a dual listing stock in both HK and Singapore drop nearly 7%.
The Link REIT one of the bigger commerical properties REITs in HK. It drop nearly 4%.

I invest heavily in Singapore industrial trust since 2010. I never experience such heavy drop.

Causes of  correction.
1. Margin call is NOT the main reason. I confirm with my stock broker that most REITs investors are cash rich. They buy in cash not margin trading.
2. Profit taking. REIT perform too well recently. Any correction will trigger profit taking
3. Outlook for properties are health. However,with after Singapore Government's cool down measures.  And market is expecting that US federal reserve may reduce size of QE. In result, Singapore properties market will not grow as quick as past 2 years. But REITs are trading 20 to 30% above their Net asset value. They may be consider as overvalue. Although their PE is only 10, REITs always include property value increase as their earning. If properties price don't appreciate as quick as last year, REITs earning will reduce. i.e. PE will go up.
4. Foreign investment outflow
US$ exchange rate peak at 23 May and today. Industrial REIT dropped 7% on 23 May and so also today. US$ exchange rate peaks and REIT drop on the same day. US dollar and stock are going up. Which may look more attractive than Singapore REIT. Foreign fund Sell REIT and buy US$ to send oversea.

My opinion is that correction could slow down when stock price is reasonably reflect its' net asset value. It could be 10 to 20% down from today.

 Sell in May. Hold on with your cash and bond. 

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