Tuesday 7 May 2013

Inflated Asia asset

With excessive liquidity and low interest rate, Asia asset e.g. home price, stock ... are inflated. Some Asia government e.g. Singapore, Hong Kong and China put restriction in loaning.

But it is not good enough. Asset price was pushed up by low interest rate. Government restrictions slow down transactions. Some investor plan for quick profit. But now they can't sell due to government restrictions. They can hold on as long as interest rate are low.

However in 2 years time, a lot of new units will be completed. While interest rate may go up. Some investors will not able to serve their loan with high interest rate. Non perform loan will increase. And banks tighten new house loan. Property price will go down further. Company profit affected by high borrowing cost and falling property price. Share price will go down together with property price

Strategy: Sell stock & property, buy Singapore bond and China stock




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