Friday 7 February 2014

Too early to pull out from Asia market

Happy Lunar New Year

My Q4 2013 was very busy but very profitable. I sold all my bank of China Share in Dec 2013. I increased my cash position before new year.

Markets went down since end of Jan 2014. The main reason was USA Federal Reserve were Tapering their bond purchasing program. Investor expect emerging markets' (EM)currency will devalue. And USA bond market will offer better return. Emerging Markets' both currency and stock marketing dropped.

Federal reserve's tapering is very  successful. USA 2yr bond rate is 0.32% today. Although Federal Reserve buy lesser bond, investors are withdrawing fund from Emerging Markets and USA stock markets to buy bond. In fact withdrawal from stock markets buy down bond interest rate.
 
Most important, Federal Reserve keep interest rate low before 2015. They will buy more bond to stop interest rate from going up.Inventors will soon find out stock market especially emerging market offer better return. Stock markets will drive up by fund reversing back from bond market.

Strategy

Dow Jones index 14500 shall be very good support.
i.e STI 2,800
    HSI 20,000

When stock market go down and getting closer to support level. I could start to buy stocks with good fundamental and dividend pay out e.g. Bank of China, Cambridge Reit and Sabana Reit.

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